Prediction Markets with “The Whistleblower” — Gaetan Dugas (Caleb Davies)

From The Prediction Market Show · 00:37:28

Show by PredictQ

What happens when a prediction market's underlying data may have been manipulated?Justin Herzig welcomes Caleb Davies, the trader known as Gaetan Dugas, to The Prediction Market Show.After building a successful trading approach around music and movie markets, Gaetan says he spotted suspicious Spotify streaming activity that threatened his positions. The resulting market outcome cost him $40,500, led to a dispute over how the market was resolved, and ultimately became part of his story in a Netflix documentary.In this episode, Justin and Gaetan discuss the investigation, his trading models, Rotten Tomatoes markets, political forecasting, and the mistakes that trip up newer prediction market traders.The conversation also explores a bigger question: What happens when your model is right, but the data used to settle the market can't be trusted?Follow Gaetan on X: https://x.com/GAETANDSubscribe to The Prediction Market Show for weekly interviews with traders and experts across prediction markets.This episode contains the guest's account of suspected manipulation. Opinions are those of the speakers. Not financial advice.

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