CropGPT - Nuts - Week 45

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Global Nuts Market SummaryIn the cashew market, Tanzania's 2026/27 season has recorded more than 200,000 tonnes delivered to warehouses, with auction sales reaching approximately 189,060 tonnes. However, the country's ambitious 750,000-tonne production target faces challenges from low average tree yields of 4.3 kilograms. Mozambique has reduced its production forecast to 146,000 tonnes, down 28.4%, while increasing its raw cashew export levy from 18% to 22%. Côte d'Ivoire is prioritizing domestic processing, targeting capacity of approximately 795,000 tonnes by 2026. Raw cashew prices remain elevated amid tightening supplies, although high input costs and capped kernel prices are squeezing Vietnamese processor margins. The pistachio market faces a substantial supply deficit in 2026/27, with global production forecast at approximately 701,000 tonnes, down 36% year on year. California, which accounts for more than 60% of global output, has experienced significant yield reductions due to alternate bearing cycles, adverse weather and water shortages. Prices remain elevated in major markets, particularly India and China, where seasonal demand is supporting consumption. However, high prices and freight costs could eventually weaken purchasing activity and create demand destruction in early 2027.California's 2026 almond crop is estimated at 2.5-2.6 billion pounds, below the previous season's 2.693 billion pounds. Strong early harvest receipts and export shipments, particularly to India and China, have provided support, although uncommitted inventory continues to limit price increases. US domestic demand remains subdued, while European buyers are cautious amid economic and currency pressures. Despite the tighter production outlook, available inventories offer buyers opportunities to secure early 2027 coverage during price corrections.In the walnut market, Ukraine has adjusted its minimum export price coefficient for shelled walnuts to support producer competitiveness. Meanwhile, the US Midwest black walnut harvest has been delayed by warmer temperatures, prompting higher buying prices to encourage collection. The hazelnut market remains relatively stable, with Turkey's larger crop offset by weather-related quality concerns. Domestic purchasing interventions have concentrated higher-quality supplies within limited channels, potentially widening quality premiums. Further rainfall could affect quality, while weak European demand limits broader price gains.

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