Why Treasury Buybacks Are Not Lowering Bond Yields
From On The Markets · 1:14:02
Show by 707 Media
Secretary Bessent tripled long-end buybacks to push yields down, but the 10-year is holding near 4.95% and the 30-year hit 5.27% as inflation expectations repriced on tariffs and energy. Interest is growing among investors around why intervention is not working and what higher yields mean for borrowing and investing.This week on On The Markets we break down how buybacks work, why the market is pushing back, and what that may indicate about next week's Fed meeting. This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir:• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declares “I am the house now”• S and P still near all-time highs? Then why is consumer sentiment at an all time low?• Nvidia just had “record earnings”? What about the half-trillion that didn't make it to the balance sheet? We look at the “off book” commitments of the hyperscalers.Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/KF3zZBUi3ZIBook Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysisCHAPTERS0:00 Intro: This Week's Topics1:37 Welcome & Remembering 9/11 (25th Anniversary)6:46 Bessent: "I Am the House Now" (Treasury/Yen Clip)11:43 Treasury Buybacks Explained ($2B to $6B)14:42 AI CapEx, OpenAI's Comeback & AI Safety Fears18:03 Global Trade Balances & Tariff Deficit Map20:35 Sentiment Check: AAII, Fear & Greed, Bitcoin21:36 Consumer Sentiment vs. Top 10% Spending Power24:47 Hot PPI/CPI Data Fuels Rate Hike Bets29:03 Hyperscalers' $3 Trillion AI Borrowing Binge32:11 Market Flips From Pricing Cuts to Pricing Hikes34:04 Housing Market Craters: Sales & Starts Collapse36:17 Housing Affordability Crisis38:03 Bond Market Duration Risk by Scenario39:37 Why Isn't the Market Buying the Buybacks?42:26 Vibes Segment: Nintendo's Tariff Refund Sale43:36 Global Liquidity Tracker & the Saudi Pipeline Attack46:03 S&P 500 Technical Analysis47:51 VIX Volatility Check49:05 Oil, Ceasefire Odds & the Houthi Pipeline Strike51:48 Magnificent Seven & the AI Bubble Debate53:56 Hidden AI Exposure in the S&P 500 Heat Map56:02 Gold & Silver Technical Charts59:36 30-Year Treasury & Housing Affordability Revisited1:01:01 Bitcoin Chart Check1:01:33 Apple's Foldable Phone & New Hardware-Focused CEO1:05:17 SpaceX Breakout & Grok AI Agents1:06:09 Dollar Index & Weekly Market Wrap1:06:46 Nike, Peloton & Disney: A Warning for AI Valuations1:10:16 Closing Thoughts & Sign-OffReferences: https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/edgy-bond-investors-unconsoled-by-bessents-big-buyback-2026-09-10/ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/20/bessents-efforts-in-the-treasury-market-so-far-havent-worked-heres-what-else-he-can-try.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/20/treasury-bond-buybacks-long-term-yields.html https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/mortgages/article/why-treasurys-6-billion-bond-buyback-didnt-lower-mortgage-rates-174923069.html https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ https://ycharts.com
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